Events

The Pricing of Volatility Derivatives: New Developments

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Date: 03-27-2008
Start Time: 5:30pm
End Time: 7:00pm
Speaker: Jim Gatheral, Merrill Lynch and Courant Institute
Location: Park Avenue Plaza at 55 East 52nd Street

ABSTRACT

Over the last two years, we have seen increased trading in both options on VIX and options on variance swaps. Also, there has been increased interest in modeling volatility with more than just one factor (Lorenzo Bergomi's two-factor model for example); rather than model instantaneous or implied volatility, the current tendency is to model variance swaps (or curves). Hans Buehler has derived consistency conditions on variance curve models in general, concentrating on the so-called Double Heston model in numerical examples. Bergomi's modelon the other hand has (double) lognormal dynamics.

In this talk, we place the Double Heston and Double Lognormal models in their historical context, explain Buehler's consistency condition and explore implications for the pricing of VIX options. We see that market pricing of VIX options excludes Heston dynamics but is roughly consistent with lognormal dynamics. Finally, we extract time series of the two volatility factors from historical option prices and compare statistical and risk-neutral parameters, finding that many of the unrealistic features of one-factor stochastic volatility models are eliminated.

BIO

Jim Gatheral is a Managing Director at Merrill Lynch and an Adjunct Professor at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NYU. Dr Gatheral obtained a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Cambridge University in 1983. A veteran of derivatives markets, Dr Gatheral has been involved in all of the major derivative product areas as bookrunner, risk manager and quantitative analyst in London, Tokyo and New York. Between 1996 and 2005, Dr Gatheral led the Equity Quantitative Analytics Group at Merrill Lynch. His current research focus is on volatility modeling and modeling equity market microstructure for algorithmic trading. Dr Gatheral is the author of The Volatility Surface: A Practitioner's Guide (Wiley 2006).

*There will be a cocktail following the event.

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